How long until we use up our carbon budget?



Confidence

  • 33-50%
  • 50-66%
  • >66%

Max Temperature Rise

  • 1.5° C
  • 2.0° C
  • 3.0° C


Annual Emissions Growth: 0%

yr mon day hr min sec


*Data from table 2.2

Confidence basically means what % of models used will stay below the target 'max temperature rise'. A full description is from the document cited above and is:

Cumulative CO2 emissions at the time of peak warming from WGIII scenarios for which a fraction of greater than 66% (66 to 100%), greater than 50% (50 to 66%) or greater than 33% (33 to 50%) of climate simulations keep global mean temperature increase to below the stated threshold. Ranges indicate the variation in cumulative CO2 emissions arising from differences in non-CO2 drivers across the WGIII scenarios. The fraction of climate simulations for each scenario is derived from a 600-member parameter ensemble of a simple carbon-cycle climate model, Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC), in a probabilistic mode. Parameter and scenario uncertainty are explored in this ensemble.

Rate assumed at the beginning of 2017 is 39.5 gigatons/year which is roughly the average of the last three years from Global Carbon Budget

Can I Use This In My Site?


Yes. You can embed this page though it looks bad when you do so I made a version that should embed well in most situations. It is here: http://cityprojections.com/carbonclock.php. Just stick it in as the src for an iframe. You can pass in various url parameters. They are:

  • size - 0 is small; 1 is medium; 2 is large; 2 is default
  • likelihood - confidence setting above...3350 is 33 - 50%; 5066 is 50 - 66%; 66 is >66%; 66 is default
  • target - 1.5 = 1.5 degrees; 2 = 2 degrees; 3 = degrees; 1.5 is default
  • buttons - 0 means hide all buttons; 1 means show them; 1 is default
  • growRate - anything under 0.9 means 0.9; anything above 1.1 means 1.1; anything between 0.9 and 1.1 is exactly that; 1 is default

Two example links showing how to use it are #1 and #2